2015 World Series of Poker begins today 5/27/2015

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Holding 2♥ -2♦, how often do you flop a set?

There are a number of ways to figure this out.  Figure out how many possible combinations of cards there are on a flop and, of those, figure out how many of them contain the cards you are looking for.

You could make a list and start counting, but that would take a long time.  Better to use a little math to figure it out.  Of course, somebody has already figured this out, like some ancient mathematician trying to figure out how many color combinations you could weave into a rug with a given set of colored yarns.    If you let n be the number of cards left in the deck to choose from and let k be the number of cards you are choosing, then the number of possible combinations you can get (without regard to the order of the cards) can be represented by a formula that looks like n! / k!(n-k)!.   

Fortunately, we have Google.  We don't need to multiply out all of those factorials.  We don't even need to know the formula or call it the binomial coefficient.  We just need to know how many cards we are choosing from the deck and how many cards are in the deck.

Google built a tool right into their search engine to make it easy for us. Just type in "50 choose 3" where 50 is the number of cards in the deck and 3 is the number of cards.  It will return the number of possible combinations.

We can use this handy tool to help us figure out our solution

How many possible flop combinations are there?  There are 52 cards in the deck and we are holding two of them.  The flop contains 3 cards,chosen from the remaining 50 so:

50 Choose 3 = 19,600  The number of possible flop combinations

Seeking 2♣ plus any combination of any of the other 49 cards

49 choose 2 = 1176

Seeking 2♠ plus any combination of any of the other 49 cards

49 choose 2 = 1176

Note that 1176 contains flops that have both 2's and another card and 2♣-2♠-X is the same as 2♠-2♣-X so we need to pull out the duplicates.

Subtract out duplicates of 2♣-2♠ plus any of remaining 48 = 48

1176 + 1176 – 48 = 2304

So now we know that of a possible 19,600 flops, 2,304 of them contain one or two deuces and give us a very strong hand.

 2304 /19,600 = 11.755%

Of course, there is more than one way to skin a cat.  My old poker buddy who was a college professor and did a lot of research using statistics and probability didn't like my alternative method because it was subject to a tiny little bit of rounding error.  But it works.  It is a method of figuring out how many times you miss catching a deuce on the flop and simply subtracting that from 100% to see how often you hit it.

Alternate method:

2 of 50 is 4%, so 96% of the time, the first card misses.

Of the 96% of the time that the first card misses, 47 of 49 or 95.92% of the time second card also misses and 95.92% of 96% is 92.08% of the time.

Of the 92.08% of the time that the first two miss, 46 of 48 or 95.83% of the time the third card misses also. This means that 95.83% of the 92.08% or 88.24% of the time all three miss which means that 11.76% of the time, you flop three or four of a kind.

By either method, you will flop a set or quads about once every 8.5 times you see a flop or, saying it another way, the odds against flopping a set are 7 ½ to 1.

The Colossus of Poker

The WSOP begins on Wednesday, May 27th with the Casino Employees' No Limit Hold'Em Tournament. The event is limited to people who work in the industry. Even the dealers hired to work the WSOP are eligible to enter. In fact, upon being hired dealers are asked for their shift preference (Days, Swing, Graveyard) and if they plan to play in the employee event. It is a way to ease into the summer's biggest poker festival with a "soft opening" and test all the systems for registration as well as all of the support needed to put the entire event together. Despite the limited nature of the field, last year there were 876 players entered. 

While there are some smaller events scheduled for Thursday, the real kickoff is on Friday with the "Colossus". This tournament is projected to be the largest ever live poker tournament in the history of poker. To start with, the "Colossus" has a guaranteed prize pool of $5 million and an entry fee of only $565, the lowest entry fee of any WSOP Bracelet event. In order to clear the guarantee, the tournament will need 10,000 entrants.

 The tournament is set up with four starting flights to accommodate the anticipated crowds. The concept is that players may enter any flight and if they unfortunately get eliminated they will be allowed to re-enter in a subsequent flight. Pre-registration is open for all four flights, so a player wanting to make sure that they have every possible chance to get their share of that $5 million can register in advance for all four flights. Any unused entries are refunded. Flights will begin play at 10 AM and 6 PM on Friday and Saturday. Players remaining from the four flights will be combined on Sunday and play will continue through Monday with the final table of nine players on Tuesday.  According to a report from Card Player Magazine, The Colossus may already have enough entries to be the largest field of players in the history of poker.

Link to Card Player Magazine Article

WSOP 2015

Yes, it is getting to be that time of year again. WSOP 2015 is just around the corner. Got my invite back. It included a note that my driver's license on file had expired and I needed to visit Human Resources in person to update it and update the I-9 form that goes with it. This little visit to HR entails a 5 hour drive from Scottsdale as well as a return. I shouldn't complain. A couple years ago that was an airplane flight from Tampa which is a lot more expensive than the tank of gas or two I'll burn up. My sister, Terrie, who lives in Sun City volunteered to keep me company on the drive, so I booked a room at the Orleans for us (no rooms available that week at the Rio) and we headed up through the desert. I spent my 15 minutes in HR, they were quick and efficient, and headed out to find some discount show tickets. Tix 4 Tonight had some discounted seats available for "Showstoppers" at the Wynn. The show was entertaining. It should be. It was a compilation of great musical numbers from Broadway shows in the recent and the distant past. I really enjoyed the "Cell Block Tango" from Chicago. If you are one of those people that hates Broadway musicals, you would really detest this show. Me, on the other hand, I've had an interest in musical theatre ever since I saw my sister (yes, Terrie, my travel companion) in "West Side Story" when we were kids. So I have been "processed". Orientation is Sunday, May 24th, and the first tournament begins May 27th. Official link to the WSOP Schedule here.