Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Casino War

     My golf buddy Darren had asked me, “How does the casino make any money playing ‘War’? You put up a bet. The dealer gives you a card and then turns a card up for him. If your card is bigger you win. If the dealer’s card is bigger you lose. So how does the house make money?”

     My curiosity got to me so I went over to a table and the dealer showed me the rules. The house makes money on ties. They give you a choice and neither option is very pleasing. In the event of a tie, you have the option to surrender half your original wager e.g. you bet $10 and both you and the dealer are dealt a 5. The dealer takes $5 from you and you go on to the next hand. The other option is to go to war. You put up an additional $10 and the dealer puts up $10 and whoever wins gets all $30. This means that you are being paid one-half to one on a 50-50 proposition. This is a really bad bet. The only thing that makes it a little easier to swallow is the “Tie Circle”. Before the hand starts, you can place a bet in the Tie Circle and if your card matches the dealer’s you get paid 10 to 1. BTW it is about 13 to 1 against a tie.

     Let’s say you play 13 hands. Win 6, lose 6 and tie one. Bet $50 on each hand with $5 in the Tie Circle each time. If you opted to not go to war on the tie, you surrender $25 but collect $50 on the tie bet so the result is a profit of $25. On the six hands you lose, it costs $330. On the six hands you win, you put up $55, get paid $50 but lose the $5 on the tie bet for a net of $45 profit per hand – a total of $270. So every 13 hands, the expectation will be to win $295 and lose $330 for a net loss of $35 on a total wagered of $715 giving the house a 4.9% advantage. There is likely a more optimal strategy, but I would bet you can’t get the house edge to less than 4%.

     My recommendation: Play Blackjack, Craps or Poker.

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