Off Early and Busted

Mark Seif, attorney and renound Poker player said, There's three ways to play jacks, ...and they're all wrong.

Famous Poker author, analyst and this year's Champion of the Ante up for Africa tournament said, "Don't go broke with just one pair."

I would be a wealthier Poker player if I could follow the advice of these guys.

After four downs I was done for the day, a victim of the shrinking field and the now absence of any afternoon tournaments, satellites or cash games. After weeks of needing a thousand dealers to mind the tables, now we only need a couple hundred.

With all of this wonderful knowledge acquired through hours of sitting at the tables observing the best in the game, I decided to try my hand at the $1- $3 No Limit table at the regular Rio Poker Room.

Things did not go well.

I lost a small bundle when my AK ran into four-of-a-kind deuces, then busted a guy who tried to bluff me with a flush draw when I had an overpair, pocket tens. Then I got pocket jacks on the button.

Pocket jacks can be problematic when facing a raise or a re-raise, but here, there were just four limpers (players who called the $3 Big Blind rather than raising). My best play is to raise and see if anyone is playing possum and re-raises or if I am ahead. I made a near pot size raise to $17. I was hoping to get just a single caller and the result was almost that: two callers. No re-raise. Likely players with weaker holdings looking to catch a lucky flop.

The flop is laid out 9-8-4 showing all three suits. A nice flop for jacks. I really don't want to see any more cards so after the callers checked I made a bet of $50. One player raised to $100 and the other folded.

This is where the game gets interesting. Did he check-raise just to see if I was bluffing? Did he check-raise because he caught the very lucky flop he was looking for? Did he catch three-of-a-kind with a small pocket pair? Did he just catch a nine and figure to catch a bluff?

I hoped for the last option. The only way to really find out is to re-raise. I went all in, about $325 total. My opponent did not immediately call. This is a good sign. If he had me beat with two pair or a set he would snap call. He hesitated. I was confident I had the best hand. He asked, "You have another big pair?" That's certainly what I am representing - that or a set. Are you feeling lucky?"

"I don't know, I might need to get lucky. I'll call it."

I showed him my jacks and he turned over a queen and a nine.

So here is the situation: There is some $770 in the pot. I have a pocket pair of jacks. My opponent has a pair of nines holding a queen kicker. From a probability standpoint I am way ahead. He could catch two perfect cards and make a straight 8-9-10-J-Q but with me holding two of the jacks, the probability is less than 1%. More likely he could catch one of the two remaining nines or one of three remaining queens with two cards yet to come. 5 outs. Of the 45 unknown cards, 40 of them make me a winner and 5 of them make me a loser. The math is 5/45 = 11.1% so 88.9% of the time he should miss on the first card. 5/44 = 11.3% so of that 88.9% of the time, he misses 88.7% of the time meaning overall he should miss 79% of the time. That makes me about a 4 to 1 favorite with two cards to go.  This is a situation players love - all the money in the middle and being a big favorite to win.

Why does it always seem to work out that when you are up against the short stack, like earlier when a guy shoved it all in with just a flush draw, the math works in your favor and you bust him but when it is a really big pot, that's when the poker gods get fickle and make you walk away muttering and shaking your head?

Yes, a killer queen showed up on the Turn card and I was done unless a miracle jack showed up on the River. No such luck.

Back to the drawing board.

In Phil Gordon's excellent Little Green Book: Lessons and Teachings in No Limit Texas Hold'em, he talks about keeping the pot small when all he has is an overpair to the board and avoiding losing his whole stack when he is behind. I suppose I could have played it differently and limited my losses but I'm just not yet a good enough player to do that.