An Interesting and Profitable Hand

I spent most of my day off doing laundry after sleeping in.  I feel the need to iron my six permanent press shirts in order to be presentable for work.  A healthy dinner was an order of lettuce wraps and the Won Ton soup at P. F. Chang's where after dinner I discovered that I had forgotten to replace the gas cap when I filled up.  Oops.  Off to Wal Mart to buy a replacement.

Seeing that the top was down and my tank was full I took a little drive over to the Eastside Cannery on Boulder Highway.  The sun was just beginning to set.  The air was warm and although the windows on the old Miata won't go down all the way, the drive out Tropicana Boulevard was pleasant.  Upon arriving I was lucky enough to get a great, close in parking space but inside the only Poker was a small tournament already in progress.  No cash game tables were running.  At least I didn't have far to walk to get back to the car.

My next choice was to head back to the Flamingo where I had memories of earlier success.  After a few hours of playing solid A-B-C Poker my $200 stack was down to about $175.  I found myself "on the button" (last to act) holding the seven and five of hearts.  A player limped, calling the $2 big blind followed by a player raising to $12.  A player new to the table on my right called the $12 and I thought, "Gee, if things work out right, I could win a big pot!"  The limper also called and we saw a flop with some $50 in the pot.

The flop came out Ah-6h-8d giving me a draw to a straight plus a draw to a flush.  I'm not going anywhere.  The original raiser put out a continuation bet of $45 and without much thought the player to my immediate right called.  My first inclination was to call and see if I could catch one of the 15 cards I needed to make a hand that could beat a pair of aces.  Then I had another idea.  There was already well over $100 in the pot.  I could bluff at it and if they all folded it would be worthwhile.  If someone called with a pair of aces, even though I was behind I was actually the favorite with two cards to come.

How can I be favored even if I am behind? Look at it like this:

If I assume a caller to my bluff has an ace and a king making him "Top Pair, Top Kicker" then I know seven of the 52 cards in the deck - my five and seven of hearts, his ace and king and the three cards on the board.  Of the 45 unknown cards 15 of them make me a winning hand: 9 hearts to make a flush and 3 nines or 3 fours to make a straight. The probability of making the winning hand on the next card is 33% (15 out of 45).  Of the remaining 66% when I do not win on the turn card, I can win on the river 34% of the time (15 out of 44).  34% of 66% is about 22%.

 33% of the time I win on the turn and 22% of the time I miss on the turn but win on the river making it 55% of the time I win.  That makes me the favorite against a hand like "Top Pair, Top Kicker".

I can improve my chances even more by bluffing because if I bluff and just 20% of the time everyone folds to me, then I am a winner some 64% of the time i.e. 20% when they fold and 55% of the remaining 80% that someone calls.  I like my chances.

I piled my chips into two neat towers and pushed them forward, "All in!"

Two opponents quickly folded and the player to my right went into the tank.  Thinking hard, he turned and stared at me.  I preferred that he fold.  I couldn't get unlucky if he folded.  I would win his $45 call, the original $45 bet plus the $50 in the pot if he folded and I would be happy with that.  I didn't really mind if he called because I would be a 55 to 45 favorite and could win the additional $75 call he would need to put up.  My raise had made it $163 "to go".  I don't like the stare down so I decided to do something.  I reached out and separated the $45 from my chips that represented the "call" portion of my bet.  The dealer saw what I was doing and then dragged the three stacks of $45 into the pot.  This left only the amount needed to call in front of me.  I then looked on the table in front of him where my opponent had made three piles of five red chips.  $75 was what he had left.  I then took the excess off of my stack so that only the $75 remained - the exact amount required by him to make the call that represented all of his money.  The lady player a few seats to my left inappropriately commented, "It looks a lot less intimidating that way." 

I nodded in agreement and turned to my opponent, "I'll show if you fold." I shrugged my shoulders.

My opponent then turned one of his cards, the ace of diamonds, face up and tossed them both to the dealer.  I turned over my two cards and said, "I was the favorite.  Fifteen outs, twice."

The dealer pushed me the pot.